Northern Virginia’s housing market finished 2025 with mixed signals: inventory rose significantly, sales increased only slightly, and buyer leverage strengthened across nearly all counties. According to the latest Casey Samson 2025 Market Update, the region is entering 2026 largely as a buyer’s market, offering opportunities for those looking to purchase.
Across Northern Virginia (NOVA), overall housing inventory grew 15% in 2025, yet total home sales only increased 5%. Arlington County led the region in performance, showing the strongest combination of sales and market stability.
“All NOVA counties are currently favoring buyers going into 2026,” notes Casey Samson of Samson Properties, who tracks the market weekly for clients and publishing partners.
Market analysis shows that less than 40% of homes under contract typically signal a buyer’s market—a trend now consistent across the region. Additionally, 30–35% of homes listed in 2025 withdrew unsold, highlighting the challenges sellers face in a market dominated by “have-to” sellers rather than “want-to” sellers. Lower-priced homes outperformed higher-end properties, continuing a trend seen throughout the D.C. metro area.
While most key markets in Northern Virginia saw modest inventory growth, sales were generally anemic. Aldie was an outlier, posting 40% inventory growth alongside a 26% increase in sales, countering the expectation that buyers are primarily moving closer to urban centers.
All key markets remain in a buyer’s market except for Haymarket, where inventory remained low throughout 2025. Despite some positive gains, 25–30% of homes in these areas were withdrawn unsold, underscoring the ongoing caution among sellers.
New home markets in Vienna, McLean, and Arlington showed a mixed picture. Overall, inventory of new homes rose 5%, but sales fell 13% in 2025. Vienna was the only key market to record a sales increase (7%), while other areas struggled with excess supply.
“Other than lower-priced new homes, most markets have huge excess inventory supplies. About 70% of new homes are available for sale, and 60–75% withdraw unsold,” Samson notes. “It is a great time to buy a new home!”
With inventory high and sales growth modest, Northern Virginia buyers are entering 2026 with a range of options and negotiation leverage. Sellers, especially those in higher price brackets, may need to adjust expectations as the market continues to favor buyers.
